Horse Racing Tips: Germany can claim a third Arc with mud-loving Secret on Sunday

October 1, 2017 Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+ All,Horse Racing

Arc de Triomphe betting odds

Arc de Triomphe Betting Tips

  • Dschingis Secret 12/1 each-way at Paddy Power  (offering 1-2-3-4 enhanced place terms)

  • Lay for a place (on the Betfair Exchange– Winter

With Longchamp, the home of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe still closed for renovations the famous race will be staged at another Parisian circuit, Chantilly, for a second consecutive year. Technically this should change things very (Chantilly has a flowing bend and a three-furlong straight) little but as heavy rain is forecast to land on Paris in the build-up to Sunday’s race it may well do.

Chantilly is renowned for its inability to absorb rainfall as well as its sister track so what could be heavy going to Longchamp will be truly bottomless at this year’s Arc venue.

18 horses are set to go to post for Europe’s most valuable race which brings a ‘Arc draw bias factor’ in to play.  The first three horses home in the 2016 renewal, which featured 16 runners, were drawn in stalls 12, 11 and 16.

Enable, currently top-priced even-money with Paddy Power is chasing her fifth consecutive Group 1 of the season.  As a three-year-old filly she gets a lot of allowances and will carry 8st 9lb.  Given her last two victories were on ‘good-to-soft’ going and were both in excess of four-and-a-half lengths (her Group 1 winning average is five lengths), she will surely take a lot of beating.

But she is no formality with Germany’s representative, DSCHINGIS SECRET, reputed to be an absolute “mud-lark”.  Indeed the 4-year-old’s recent record indicates as much; he has won his last three outings, a pair of Group 2’s and a Group 1, on good, soft and heavy going.  His most recent win was over Arc course and distance in the ‘Prix Foy’, where he won ‘readily’ accounting Cloth of Stars, Satono Noblese and Satono Diamond who will all re-oppose on Sunday afternoon.

Germany has won an Arc before, twice in fact, in 1975 with Star Appeal and as recent as 2011 with Danedream who broke Longchamp’s course record in the process.  Let us not forget the country has also been responsible for a Melbourne Cup winner while the UK never has.

Ireland’s chief hope is Winter and she will receive plentiful market support due to the booking of jockey Ryan Moore and the record of her trainer, Aidan O’Brien.  But the heavy ground will surely not be idea for the dual 1000 Guineas winner whose dam was seen to best effect as a sprinter.

Contesting joint-favouritism at 8/1, the grey filly has never raced beyond 1 mile-2 furlongs so this will be a big ask her particularly on heavy ground.  In fact, she has ‘lay for the place market’ written all over her in our book.

Recommended Arc de Triomphe Bets

  • Dschingis Secret 12/1 each-way at Paddy Power (offering 1-2-3-4 enhanced place terms) 

  • Lay for a place (on the Betfair Exchange) – Winter