Formula One Betting Tips: Italian Grand Prix (Sunday, 1pm)

August 30, 2017 Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Google+ All,Formula1

Expect finishers aplenty in Monza on Sunday

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Italian Grand Prix betting odds

Recommended Formula One Bets

Total Finishers:  Over 16.5 11/8 (2.38) with bet365

Race Winner: Sebastian Vettel 7/2 (4.50) with William Hill

Winning Margin: Under 5sec 5/6 with bet365

There is an outstanding Formula One bet in the early exchanges for Sunday’s Formula 1 race from Monza, Italy.  It is in the total number of finishers market.

This being the most straight-forward of all circuits, with long fast straights and run-off areas at the very few turns, the finishing numbers are always high here.

In fact, 2012-2015 saw just two non-finishers per-race. In 2008 there was just one non-finisher and 2007 was another year when exactly two cars failed to make 90% of the race distance (which deems a car to be an official finisher).

OK, in 2016 there were 18 finishers (22 cars started), but given 20 cars will start on Sunday and the last three races of the current season has seen 17 finishers, bet365’s 11/8 offer about ‘over 16’ finishers is clearly outstanding.

Sebastian Vettel at the prices

Of course there is no fan like an Italian Ferrari F1 fan and they will go wild should Sebastian Vettel manage to give the Marenello-based team its first victory on the race since 2010.  

Prior to last weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix the belief was the Mercedes were set to be superior at low-downforce tracks (the high-speed ones) and the high-downforce circuits (the ones with lower speeds and more cornering) were the domain of Ferrari. Given that Sebastian Vettel pressed Hamilton all the way to the wire at Spa, things are not so clear cut.

In fact, there is surely a healthy chance Vettel will manage to overcome his rival on home tarmac, certainly in excess of 25% which makes his odds of 7/2 with WIlliam HIll irresistible.

It should be marginal

Even if Vettel fails to win the race he will surely run Hamilton close for a second consecutive race weekend.  The margin between them in Spa last time was just 2.3sec.  It makes the 5/6 about a winning margin of less than 5sec very attractive.

Another scenario sees the Mercedes, probably spearheaded by Lewis Hamilton, racing first and second entering the closing stages.  With the longevity of engine components vital in this modern era of motorsport (changes can and do lead to grid penalties in future races) it is unlikely the German team will allow its drivers to race each other stressing these parts and therein we could expect to see a narrow margin ‘coast home’ victory.

In either scenario, the 5/6 about a winning margin of less than 5sec is a great proposition.

Our F1 Bets for Monza

Total Finishers:  Over 16.5 11/8 (2.38) with bet365

Race Winner: Sebastian Vettel 7/2 (4.50) with William Hill

Winning Margin: Under 5sec 5/6 with bet365

Compare betting odds on the Italian Grand Prix here