Formula 1 Betting Tips: Hungary Grand Prix (1pm, Sunday)
Stats point to Daniel Ricciardo in the Hungarian Grand Prix
F1 Betting Tips:
Daniel Ricciardo (Each Way) at 7/1 with Ladbrokes
Jenson Button (Points Finish) at 8/11 with bet365
Fernando Alonso (Points Finish) at 8/11 with bet365
You know that phrase, ‘lies, damn lies and statistics’? For the likes of Hungary ‘lies, damn lies and anomalies’ is far more apt.
This week’s race will once again be staged on a narrow, twisty, dusty and outdated circuit where overtaking is nigh impossible. Consequently should there be rain interruption (unlikely) or a Safety Car introduced to the proceedings the race could be well and truly mixed up! The faster cars may find themselves out of position and stuck in traffic.
But such uncertainties have not always contributed to this venue being recognised as a favourite’s graveyard in recent years. Rarely in fact.
In 2014 Daniel Ricciardo scored despite a far faster Mercedes starting on pole. Last year the Mercedes started 1-2 but they finished sixth and eighth with Sebastian Vettel’s Ferrari taking the honours. Talking of Vettel, his 2.4-litre Red Bull car which ruled F1 for four years (winning 34 of the 77 races which made up the 2010-2013 seasons), has never scored here.
With only three of the last ten pole setters also winning here one could simply declare this is a race to swerve. But there is good reason for the seemingly freaky results Hungary has thrown up, downforce.
Ricciardo looks value
You see this circuit is a dog track, not just any old dog track, a track like Henlow which has more than the conventional four bends. Hungary has lots of bends and that means short straights and, in turn, that means relatively slow speeds. With the exception of Monaco, this is the slowest F1 racing circuit of them all.
Resultantly the fastest car, unquestionably the Mercedes in current times, is not necessarily the fastest conveyance around the Hungaroring. That honour normally goes to the car which performs best with a high downforce set-up. This means it sticks to the road and does not lose valuable time braking and cornering. That car is known to be the Red Bull.
So, given Red Bull’s Daniel Ricciardo set the fastest lap here last year as well as Monaco and Singapore – the three slowest tracks on the F1 calendar – he has to be of interest. At this season’s Monaco Grand Prix, in which his was clearly the fastest car and defeat was only tasted due to a terrible pit-stop. You have to bet the Australian at Ladbrokes 7/1.
Naturally the second Red Bull car of Max Verstappen has to be considered but the youngster, despite claiming a race win and two seconds in his six races with the team, is very much second preference. He did not impress in Monaco earlier in the year – crashing repeatedly during the race weekend.
McLaren can benefit
For our back-up betting tips we like bet365’s 8/11 about the McLaren drivers finishing in the top-10 (Points Finish). Their car is improving and is another that will benefit from the inference being taken away from pure speed.
Button has breached the top-10 in half of his last six races and loves this circuit winning his first ever race here in 2006. Alonso is another course specialist finishing in the top six of the last six Hungarian Grand Prix. Furthermore he took fifth at the Monaco GP this year and that venue is the best form pointer for the outcome of this.