January 1 2020 Prop Bets: 5/2 the Pound is worth less than the Euro, 2/5 a Deal Brexit or Extension
Shambles: Noun [s] – a place of great disorder, chaos, mess, confusion.
Welcome to the UK! Yes the country is in disarray, general elections, a new government? Brexit, clean breaks, no break, a break leaving millions of shattered pieces all over the island? Who knows where we will be in a few months’ time and who will be sleeping in No. 10 Downing Street on January 1st 2020.
But all this uncertainty does provide one certainty, a global lack of confidence in the Great British Pound. In June 2015 £1.00 would buy you €1.40. Precisely a year later, and on the eve of the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum, £1 could be converted into €1.30. By mid-August 2019, that exchange rate had dropped to a basement €1.06.
So whereby the big question was always “will the Pound drop below the value of the Euro” it is now a case of “when will the Euro pass the value of the Pound”. Converting odds into percentages, Betway who offer 5/2 (3.50) about the eventuality, say there is a 28.5% chance the Euro will be the higher valued currency as we enter 2020.
Has the pound dropped below the euro yet.
— speaks his Thoughts (@Tara61711) August 28, 2019
No deal, no help
Certainly a ‘no deal’ Brexit would do the most harm to Sterling amongst the international currency markets and if you want to see your spending money go further on your next European holiday you’ll be glad to know that Unibet reckon its 2/5 (or 71%) likely that a withdraw agreement is ratified, Article 50 extended beyond 2019 or Article 50 is revoked). Earlier this week when MP’s voted to extend Article 50 in the case of a no-deal, the pound recovered some recent losses against the Euro.
Prior to an election being called it was warned by experts that the Pound to Euro exchange rate would be hit by a “downside movement” if the country was sent to the polls. But regardless of who wins an election and if the UK leaves Europe on time cleanly or otherwise there’s still a very real chance notes with HM Queen face on them will be worth less than those displaying featureless buildings and bridges on January 1 2020.
“There is no good time of year to leave the European Union without a deal.”
Michael Gove clarifies his comments after he said that there would be no food shortages in the case of a no-deal Brexit. pic.twitter.com/OMmwoJtWCP
— Channel 4 News (@Channel4News) September 5, 2019
Crisis beyond the politics
Outside of government the latest figures show UK manufacturers have recorded the sharpest drop in factory output for seven years as EU-based customers are shunning British manufacturers amidst the political turmoil and potential of border disruptions. Furthermore orders from the US and Asia have fallen.
Put in basic terms the less purchases of UK products and services from those outside of the UK means less people buying into the pound sterling brand and that means it can and will weaken further in the coming months.
Recommended 2020 Prop Bets
– The Euro to be worth more than the Pound on January 1st 2020 at 5/2 (3.50) with Betway Sports
Image credit – https://www.flickr.com/photos/[email protected]/5929577747