Free tips Epsom Oaks Betting Preview – Lah Ti Dar Ticks Most Boxes
25th May Update – Breaking News: Lah Tip Dar ruled out of Epsom Oaks
Epsom Oaks Betting Preview & Tip
In 2015 Qualify, at odds of 50/1, became the longest priced Oaks winner in the 239-year history of the race. But this surprise winner was just one of several turn-ups the race has given us during the past decade.
Remarkably half of the Oaks winners since 2008 have started at 20/1 or greater. So, unlike the Epsom Derby where nine of the last ten winners started in the top four of the Derby betting odds, this race has proven difficult from a punters perspective.
If the formbook is rarely a good guide, the same cannot be said of the racing stats and they show some definite trends which can help you pinpoint where the winner may well come from.
O’Brien’s Massive Entry and Fine Record
Ireland’s champion trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the Oaks six times, most recently in 2016 with the 10/11 favourite, Minding, and 2015 with Qualify. John Gosden took the race last year with Enable and also in 2014 with Taghrooda.
Required listening – @MCYeeehaaa gets the very latest from John Gosden on Derby hope Roaring Lion, Oaks fancy Lah Ti Dar, the exciting Without Parole, promising stayer Weekender and the classy Sevenna Star: pic.twitter.com/GGZl2GcedS
— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 23, 2018
At the time of writing O’Brien is responsible for over half of the 20 horses still entered in Epsom Oaks race. However, none of his runners are in the top three of the Epsom Oaks betting odds lists.
The clear favourite, LAH TI DAR, is trained by John Gosden. Black Type bookmakers are offering an industry top price 11/4 (3.75) about this contender and we really like her and these stand-out betting odds too – she is as short as 7/4 with William Hill!
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— Marcus Bonser (@MBonser98) May 14, 2018
Lah Ti Dar won the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket convincingly at the start of May and this race has proven itself to be the best guide to the Oaks, providing us with the 2014 winner, Taghrooda, and 2013 winner Talent.
This is not the only Epsom Oaks stats in her favour. Lah Ti Dar was once raced as a two-year-old as were six of the last ten winners and she will head to Epsom on the back of a victory, which was also the case for six of the past ten winners.
Naturally many other horses tick important boxes but some fancied runners have form indicators which count against them. Remarkably experience in Group company as a juvenile is actually a negative. These runners have only given us three winners since 2008.
Second favourite Wild Illusion (top priced 15/2 at Betfair) was heavily campaigned at two including at Group level (a Group 1 winner). She is also unraced beyond a mile and eight of the last ten Oaks winners had raced at 10 furlongs or beyond when contesting the Oaks.
Epsom Oaks Betting Tips
Lah Ti Dar is in the right hands, she is unbeaten, impeccably bred and has an enormous engine. What’s more she fits into the quantifiable characteristics of previous winners – the only exception being her price. The chief concern is her lack of experience and ability to act on this notoriously tricky track.
The each-way bet and lively outsider to consider is Forever Together (12/1 top price at Sporting Bet). She may be a maiden but she was luckless in Chester’s Oaks being denied a clear run on two occasions when finishing second to stable-mate Magic Wand.
Stoutly bred by Galileo out of the same dam (Green Room) as Group 1 winner Lord Shanakill, she is a full sister to Group 1 winner Together Forever and may prove to be a fair bit better than what she has so far shown.
Our Recommended Oaks Bets:
- Lah Ti Dar to win at 3/1 (4.00) with Black Type
- Forever Together (each-way) at 12/1 (13.00) with Sporting Bet
Previous Epsom Oaks Winners
YEAR / WINNER / SP / JOCKEY / TRAINER
- 2017 Enable 6/1 L Dettori J Gosden
- 2016 Minding 10/11F R Moore A O’Brien
- 2015 Qualify 50/1 S Heffernan A O’Brien
- 2014 Taghrooda 5/1 P Hanagan J Gosden
- 2013 Talent 20/1 R Hughes R Beckett
- 2012 Was 20/1 S Heffernan A O’Brien
- 2011 Dancing Rain 20/1 J Murtagh W Haggas
- 2010 Snow Fairy 9/1 R Moore E Dunlop
- 2009 Sariska 9/4 F J Spencer M Bell
- 2008 Look Here 33/1 S Sanders R Beckett
- 2007 Light Shift 13/2 T Durcan H Cecil
- 2006 Alexandrova 6/4F K Fallon A O’Brien
- 2005 Eswarah 13/2 R Hills M Jarvis
- 2004 Ouija Board 11/2 K Fallon J Dunlop
- 2003 Casual 9/2 M Dwyer A Balding
- 2002 Kazzia 9/1 F Dettori S Suroor
- 2001 Imagine 3/1 M Kinane A O’Brien
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