Free tips La Liga: Villarreal v Atletico Madrid Prediction (7.45pm, Monday)
Villarreal look Asian Handicap value at home to Atletico Madrid
Villarreal v Atletico Madrid Prediction:
Asian Handicap – Villarreal +0.5 @ 19/20 (1.95) with bet365
Live on Sky Sports 2
Villarreal meet Atletico Madrid at El Madrigal on Monday evening in a game with plenty at stake, with both teams currently sitting just outside the Champions’ League qualification places.
It’s been a slightly below par Atletico Madrid this season in La Liga and they go to Villarreal down in 5th position, a full 12 points adrift of their big city neighbours Real Madrid at the top of the table (albeit with a game in hand).
That may already possibly be too much ground to make up to challenge for the title, but a win at El Madrigal would put them within three points of Barcelona in 2nd place.
Villarreal are only two points behind Atleti in 6th spot, but their recent domestic form has also been a cause for concern, with just one win in their last five league games.
The betting angle around this game has to focus on goals, or rather a lack of them, with Villarreal having failed to register a goal in their last three league matches.
Goals haven’t been easy to come by for Atleti either over the past week, with the 1-0 Champions’ League group stage defeat at Bayern Munich following on from a 0-0 draw at home to Espanyol in La Liga.
Staying on the goal theme (or rather the lack thereof), the last seven meetings between these two teams have featured under 2.5 goals. Indeed, only one of those matches even featured two goals and amassed a grand total of seven goals between them in those matches.
It’s no surprise that Atleico have been watertight defensively this season, having conceded just 11 goals in 14 matches to date. However, Villarreal are the only team in La Liga to better that, having conceded just 10 goals.
It all points to this game being very tight and low-scoring and explains why most bookies have priced up under 2.5 goals in the game at around 1/2 (1.50). That’s too short to appeal, so a better option could be to back Villarreal +0.5 on the Asian Handicap, which would ensure a winning bet even in the event of a draw.