Free tips Cheltenham 2019 Tips: RSA Insurance Novices Chase Betting Prediction (2.10pm Weds)

12/03/19
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The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase

The RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase is probably the most popular race at the Cheltenham Festival outside of the four championship races. The reason is simple, this three mile contest has been the stepping stone for some of the sport’s greatest steeple chasers.

In 2007 the race was won by the great Denman who won two Hennessy Gold Cups and the 2008 Cheltenham Gold Cup.  2012 winner Bobs Worth also went on to win a Gold Cup as did the 2013 winner, Lord Windermere.

Video: 2018 RSA Insurance Novices Chase (Presenting Percy)

32Red From is the Best

The most difficult job of all is identifying which horse will prevail in 2019.  Santini is the bookmakers choice, currently top-priced at 3/1 with Betway Sports and bet365*. This Nicky Henderson trained horse finished just third in the 32Red Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton behind La Bague Au Roi and Topofthegame on Boxing Day.

Yet, despite La Bague Au Roi winning again in a Grade 1 novice chase at Leopardstown, taking her season record to four-from-four, the 8-year-old mare can be backed at 16/1 with bet365* for the 2019 RSA Insurance Novices’ Chase.

The telling Cheltenham stat in this race is the age of previous winners and this very much counts against this mare.  Only two 8-year-olds have won this race in the past 20 years. Ten of the last 12 RSA Chase winners have been aged, like Santini, 7.

Topofthegame has yet to win a chase in three starts over the larger obstacles, but he forfeit almost 30 lengths at the start of his seasonal debut at Exeter when coming second and some believed he could have beaten La Bague Au Roi on Boxing Day with a better ride and he will be suited to Cheltenham’s uphill finish.

Trainer Paul Nicholls has been bullish about his horse’s chances who he declared will be heading straight to the Festival without another run. And who could blame him for his optimism? His horse is aged 7 after all and Defi Du Seuil, a former Festival winner who beat him at Exeter has gone on to greater things – winning the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase against some highly regarded rivals at the start of February.  

Irish runner is error prone

We are, of course, taking the 32Red Kauto Star Novices’ Chase form to be guilt-edged. In fairness it normally is.

The best of the rest, and 9/2 second favourite (at Betway) is the Irish-trained Delta Work who won last season’s Pertemps Hurdle at the Festival.  He’s three-from-three over fences this season but he has made plenty of jumping errors and two of his victories were hard fought by narrow margins.

RSA Insurance Novices Chase Betting Prediction

Everything taken into account TOPOFTHEGAME looks to have the right credentials to win this race and his trainer certainly knows what is required to win it.  At Boylesports odds of 7/1 he looks a safe each-way Cheltenham bet.

Cheltenham FestivalTopofthegameDelta WorkLa Bague Au RoiDefi Du SeuilSantini
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